Private-home prices climb as new sales slow; HDB resale deals pick up

Private-home prices rose 1.4% in the third quarter of 2026, while HDB resale prices edged down 0.1%, according to final figures released on 23 October. Yet the quieter price movement came with the busier HDB resale market: 7,645 flats changed hands, up 19.5% from the previous quarter.

For a household choosing between a resale flat and a condo, that is a more interesting picture than a simple widening price gap. Private prices increased even as developers sold fewer homes, while more HDB buyers and sellers reached deals despite a small decline in the resale price index. The two markets were moving differently in both prices and activity.

The condo comparison starts with 1.0%, not 1.4%

The Urban Redevelopment Authority’s overall private residential price index rose 1.4% quarter on quarter, following a 0.5% increase in the second quarter. But the overall figure combines two segments with different results: landed-home prices increased 2.9%, while non-landed prices rose 1.0%.

For someone considering a new condo, the non-landed figure is the closer starting point. The stronger landed-home increase belongs to a different type of property; it should not become the benchmark for judging a condo’s asking price. Even the non-landed index describes a broad market, rather than a particular development, floor or layout.

That distinction changes the comparison worth making. Instead of asking whether a launch price looks reasonable against a national 1.4% increase, ask how the actual unit compares with recently sold alternatives of similar size, age and location.

Keep the total purchase price beside the price per square foot. Then examine what that total buys: usable bedrooms, storage, circulation space and a living area that fits the household. A smaller home can have a manageable total price without necessarily offering the better fit.

These are comparison questions, not findings about any named launch. The quarterly release provides the backdrop; a unit-level conclusion still needs transaction records and the relevant floor plans.

Fewer new sales came with fewer launches

Developers launched 1,140 uncompleted private homes, excluding executive condominiums, in the third quarter, down from 1,783 in the second quarter. They sold 1,183 homes, compared with 2,141 in the preceding quarter.

Calculated from those figures, launches fell about 36.1%, while developer sales fell about 44.7%. The sales slowdown therefore came alongside a substantial reduction in the number of homes launched. Reading the sales decline without the supply figure would leave out an important part of the quarter.

There is another useful distinction: developers sold 43 more homes than they launched during the quarter. Those totals are not a matched batch of units, so dividing sales by launches would not tell a buyer what proportion of the quarter’s newly launched homes found buyers.

For a specific project, the more useful follow-up is to establish what was released, what sold and what remains available. Ask for a dated availability list rather than relying on a broad description such as “selling well”.

Then compare like with like within the remaining selection. If the available homes have a different bedroom count, floor level or facing from the units used in a sales comparison, keep that difference visible. A project’s overall sales total cannot answer whether the particular unit on offer suits your household or budget.

Resale condos remained a substantial alternative

Private resale transactions barely changed: 3,801 homes changed hands in the third quarter, against 3,813 in the second. Yet their share of all private-home sales rose to 73.9%, from 62.0%.

That is an increase of 11.9 percentage points in resale’s share, despite almost unchanged resale volume. It reflects a different mix of transactions as developer sales fell, rather than a surge in the number of private resale deals.

For a launch buyer, this makes resale a useful comparison to examine alongside other new projects. Build the comparison around the same household need: the bedroom count you require, an acceptable journey to work or school, and the total amount you are prepared to spend.

Next, separate what can be inspected from what needs documentary checking. At a completed home, use a viewing to assess room proportions, daylight and the immediate surroundings. For an uncompleted project, check the plans and specifications carefully, and distinguish confirmed features from illustrations or assumptions.

Completion timing belongs in that comparison too. Write down when each option would allow you to move, and what your household would do in the meantime. Treat any temporary accommodation or renovation allowance as a separately checked cost—not as something already captured by the headline purchase price.

HDB prices softened, but transactions picked up

HDB’s final resale price index stood at 202.5, down 0.1% from the second quarter. It was the third consecutive quarterly decline, following falls of 0.1% in the first quarter and 0.3% in the second.

The volume figures tell a livelier story. Third-quarter resale transactions rose from 6,396 to 7,645, an increase of 1,249 flats, or 19.5%. They were also 5.9% higher than in the third quarter of 2025.

For a household selling a flat before buying a condo, the useful distinction is between a modest movement in the broad price index and the price achievable for its own home. The figures show that transactions increased while the index slipped; they do not provide a valuation for an individual flat.

A practical comparison should therefore keep the sale and purchase estimates separate. Use relevant completed transactions to form a working estimate for the flat, then test the condo purchase against a lower sale outcome as well. Do not treat an advertised asking price as money already available for the next purchase.

The same discipline helps a buyer deciding to remain in HDB housing. A small quarterly index decline is a reason to examine current evidence carefully, rather than assume every seller has reduced their expectations by the same amount.

More potential supply, but the shortlist still needs specifics

URA said more than 32,000 private homes, including executive condominiums, could be made available for sale over the next one to two years. That gives buyers a broader supply backdrop, but it is not a list of confirmed launch dates, available unit types or future prices.

Use that information to make waiting a concrete option. Identify what another launch would need to improve: location, layout, completion timing or total price. Then compare those requirements with what is actually verified about forthcoming choices.

The quarter’s clearest lesson is about choosing the right evidence. Private prices rose, developer sales fell, private resale activity held broadly steady and HDB resale transactions increased. Each describes a different part of the housing market.

Before committing to a launch, bring the comparison back to the actual home: its transaction evidence, usable space, surroundings and move-in timetable. The unresolved question is not which national index looks stronger. It is whether the unit available today offers a better fit than the alternatives your household can realistically buy.